concerns about their whole sustainable wind, sun exposure, and a pun to the energy segment. and now we think it's going up the other side and business is coming back. >> joe >> it beat up a lot of positions that we own today but netflix is a great one, continue to own it. >> great stuff i'll see you on "closing bell. we'll see you then, scott. hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. and here's what's ahead. who's to blame for the recent market turbulence? it's not the fed, says dave zervos it's traders living in rate cut lala land. and he's here right behind me in studio to make his case. we'll also talk about office loan defaults nearing historic levels one of our guests says that's presenting a once in a generation opportunity he's here with what he's buying and where. and is it time to trim nvidia? the debate everyone's been having the past 24 hours stan drukenmiller, brad gerstner

doing it but our analyst says don't he's going to talk about how much he sees ahead and why he insists the competition can't catch up before that let's start with today's markets and dom chu always has our numbers >> kelly, markets have turned mixed in midday trading after starting off the day with some fractional gains the dow is a very modest 76 points. that's about .2% gain. the s&p 500 is down roughly 6 to 7 points 1/10 of 1% loss there. the nasdaq underperforming that tech heavier index pulls back by just about 1/3 of 1% 16,280 for the composite index a lot of individual stocks on the move today and i'm sure we'll be talking much more about all of them throughout the course of the afternoon. but here are some of the midday mover highlights starting with the absolute plunge in shopify, down nearly 20% right now pape fifth of its value gone after the e-commerce platform company for merchants reported actually better quarterly results but gave what's being viewed as a more disappointing current quarter profit and revenue forecast it's still robust growth but not as robust as it's been for

shopify. those shares down 20%. another big drop comes via trip advisor, which is roughly down 29% to 30% right now the online travel and dining platform reported, again, generally positive quarterly results but a special committee of the board of directors tasked with finding a suitor to possibly buy out the company said that it had not found any potential deals with third parties that were in the best interests of shareholders at this time. no deal. shares are down 29%. and we'll end with a tale of two ride sharing giants. uber and lyft moving in opposite directions uber posting a surprise loss per share for the quarter. slight revenue beat. lyft reporting better than expected revenues and better total bookings as well you can see uber shares down 9%, lyft shares up 5%. i know you'll have much more on those stories coming up later on, kelly. i'm going to send things back over to you. and what i can see is a brain power round table paradise >> we're already whispering what do we think is going on with trip advisor

and uber, it didn't seem that bad. i don't know dom, thank you while markets scaled back the number of rate cuts this year and adjust to the new normal potentially of higher for longer there's been a lot of blame going around for this change in forecasts. on top of the list is the fed and its dovish pivot in december but in a new piece on cnbc pro today david zervo says traders are living in rate cut lalaland they're the ones to blame for the recent market turbulence and not jay and the fed. here to make his case is chief market strategist at jeffries joined by peter boockvar cheem financial officer at bleakly group. and cnbc economics reporter steve liesman. where should we begin? set us up a little bit with what you think is going on in the market here lately >> the markets to what david basically is pointing out is we got so used to every time there would be an issue the fed's going to cut, the fed's going to save us with rate cuts everyone in commercial real estate, fed's going to save us with rate cuts and also just the way the fed works when they move they move

in a progression of events when they cut they slash when they hype they go like this so the fed had a very difficult time of communicating that if we cut it's not the beginning of a trip down to zero, it's just a tweak. and i think they got way too carried away but the fed's job is also difficult because i see a remarkably mixed economy and very uneven. and you have commodity prices near the highest level in a couple years i think they're trying to even figure out, they're like in this hall of mirrors that they're looking at the next meeting. they may give us their forecast for multiple meetings out but they have no idea what's happening past the next month or the next cpi print >> you're saying don't expect them -- dave, put your spin on it what do you think is going on here and have they gotten it right all along? >> they're going to get it wrong in nuances here and there and everybody's going to get it wrong. i think the real story that happened is jay pivoted a little dovishly in december they moved the dots 25 basis

points and the market took that and ran 100 basis points with it you've got to think about it the dots moved 25. they moved 100 in two months >> i have some sympathy for the market, by the way, because the fed's usually behind it's kind of like what peter talked about we're sort of used to them catching up from behind and -- >> but they were already 75 in so they took it to 175, between 150 and 175. so i think it was an aggressive move by the market that was very excited about the q4 inflation data, which came in much weaker than expected. i think the fed was doing a little victory lap jay was sort of saying -- kind of poking all the people who said he'd never get inflation back to two without the unemployment rate going way up and he was feeling pretty good and the market ran with it i doen't give jay a lot of heat for guiding the market incorrectly. the market should be a big boy and take the loss when they take the loss they went too far. they've ratcheted back a lot of people lost some money figuring that out.

and the equity market i think actually did really well in this it's the rate guys that just kind of got spun out of control. >> the weird thing about having this conversation is the past 24 hours has now been -- we featured a lot of companies talking about slowdowns or like the bad jobs report. it wasn't even -- 150,000. but you know, it's slowing at this moment then does the rate cut discussion come back then legitimately or not >> to peter's point i think it's important to really dissect the two types of rate cut sequences we could get one is a modest tweak of hey, inflation's come down a little faster, the unemployment rate -- the labor market looks a little weaker these are very modest changes. or something really bad happens and they have to go big. which i think is an important thing. >> possibility >> possibility, yeah and it's a good thing for the risk asset markets to know the fed is back there. they are back there. they've got inflation in a place where they could do that they couldn't do that in '22 and they really couldn't do that in '23. so that's important.

i do think it really doesn't matter we've said this from the beginning of the year. it doesn't matter whether they do one, two, three, four, five, six, the fact they're back there and they've got inflation in a pretty good place means they could bring the big guns out if they need them that lets risk assets go a little bit and that's why i think risk assets haven't paid much attention to whether we're proised in at 7 or priced in at 1. the s&p's up 5 to 10% no matter what >> while the current bond guy's hating on the bond market, just for a moment, steve, let's see how that went over >> anything better than a c. >> rick, how'd it go >> you know, steve, if you didn't watch the market you wouldn't know if it should be better than a c but you got lucky on this one. we're talking about 42 billion tens 42 billion the second time we hit 42 billion in supply. in february this year and today. the biggest 10-year auctions ever the yield at the auction, 4.483. this is key. the when issued market the last

trade was 4.473. higher yield, lower price. they tailed it one basis point and that was really the worst part of this auction all the other metrics are basically on top of the 10 auction average. so i gave it a c minus and that was probably quite generous you see the impulse on the intraday of 10 was to the up side but it has leveled off we're hovering right around 4.48, which is basically where this market's been trading most of the session tomorrow of course we finish up with 25 billion 30-year bonds. but this auction really isn't as pretty as a c-minus but we gave it a c-minus this is the primary auction. it will be a couple of reopenings but in the end the investors are having the same conversation that you guys are having around the table. i'm not sure if the investors would agree, though, that the fed didn't fumble. i think the fed's been fumbling for a decade back to you. >> i think you're being a tough teacher today with a c-minus,

rick do you think it was that bad >> absolutely. i probably should have given it a d. all the other metrics are average. >> we'll call if a d then. >> no, we'll keep it c-minus we don't want steve's head t explode. >> my head never explodes. but first of all i think we should have sound effects. when rick -- we should have an applause sound effect. but i'm giving it an a because this is the one i was worried about this week, this is a big number, it went down, i'm cool with that and we'll see what happens in the after-market. yields are a little bit lower, that's good. i want to approach the question you asked from two different standpoints. the first thing is we need to remember what we're addressing here my captain who i fish with in cape cod, every day he calls me he wants to know if interest rates are going down he needs a new motor he wants to buy a new boat captain alan, i'm looking out for you. >> interesting >> that's where the rubber meets the road here or whatever, the boat meets the water, whatever

you want to say. and that's what he wants to know and i don't really have a good answer for him that's the kind of top level thing. there's a bigger issue underneath, which also i was going to incorporate the idea that rick has, which is this the market doesn't exist as a person or a thing. it is essentially incapable of expressing a point of view it does end up expressing the point of view as an amalgamation of many different points of view that are out there >> right >> the only responsibility for that market response has to lie with the communicator. right? in that you can't blame the market because the market can't be blamed. it doesn't exist to be blamed. if the market went off you've got to go back to first principles and say how could powell have done this differently to keep the market -- >> going back to december he

didn't know we were about to get uturn. >> here's the other problem. and this may be the nut of the issue. i wonder what our esteemed guests think of this as i said several times before, they're victims of their own transparency right? the dot plot is not a policy statement. and if i'm going to criticize powell any place, it's the following. he gives a press conference that very much expresses his point of view i as a reporter rely mostly on the statement of the committee i want to know what the committee's going to do. the only thing the committee does is put out the statement as a committee. >> but doesn't he have the last say? >> he does have the last say he has an important say. but they end up putting out a dot plot as an unintended result of 19 different votes. that is not committee policy that's why i was not fooled by the 3 mean 6

3 to me meant 3 or fewer with a relatively high bar to cut anyway, i want to know -- and i don't know the answer to this. could powell have communicated differently and kept the 6 from happening? i want to answer that question and the other thing is i think we need to be a little more careful that we're focusing on what the committee does as a committee rather than what individuals say even the chairman >> peter, jump in here for a second as well >> to your point at the end of the day what powell wants is what powell gets and if anybody disagrees with him he'll sway them to his size on this whole consensus thinking >> i'm not sure that's exactly right, peter >> interesting >> i think powell has an idea of what he wants but before he asks that he gauges where the committee is >> i'm sure he does. >> i don't think it's a one-way street >> i'm sure he does but politically i think he'll be more inclined to sway them to his side rather than they sway him to their side. >> right okay fair enough. >> i think one thing just with rates to your question about the boat guy, because i get the questions all the time with real estate people. >> every day >> but i say that this time may be different in the sense that yeah, maybe the fed cuts short

rates but that doesn't mean the 10-year yield is going to follow >> or that his personal loan for a motor's going to go down sorry, alan. >> if the bond market doesn't think the fed -- if the bond market thinks the fed has turned their attention to the unemployment rate and less on commodity prices and inflation generally, the fed funds rate may fall but the 10-year yield with still go to 5%. are we better off? no, that boat guy and the real estate guy is not any happier on those rate cuts. >> right >> let me -- i think i'm somewhere in the middle. i am in the middle technically i'm somewhere in the middle of where you guys were on that debate about, you know, jay being the dictator and there being more consensus i think jay positions himself where he knows he has to to get the consensus. which means he does compromise a little bit and part of what he did in december, and i'm just speculating, part of what he did in december was to pivot dovishly because he knew there was a lot of pressure building up for a dovish move there was a lot of political

pressure the typical election year political pressure that comes, whether it's janet and lael in the administration or the other governors or presidents or sherrod brown, elizabeth warren, maxine waters, the usual letter writers that are always telling him he needs to do more to create jobs and not really care as much about inflation. i think jay kind of had a very masterful political move in december and the market ran away with it. to move that little and get that big of a spin out of it was kind of animal spirits gone wild to me and that's okay. markets do that. you know, sometimes the adhd kid doesn't take his meds and they go a little crazy. and that's what happens to the market sometimes >> sort of like no matter what you think he's going to do now that you think the market's going to do fine because the fed can backstop them because we no longer have cpi 8. >> i just think the equity marketalways looks to the very long term. they're the longest-term capital in the market.

and they're telling you fed credibility's intact, inflation expectations are anchored. if we need to hang out 'little higher for a little longer they don't care >> david-i was super interested in that part of your note today because it turns conventional wisdom on a dime in the sense that people toned think the bond market is the smart one. and you're positing this idea that equity markets -- and i think you're right -- this example of how the market traded through december and january is a good example i will say no harm no foul in the sense that the market was forecasting six rate cuts down the road the near-term stuff was pretty well priced. and then the important thing is is the reaction function well calibrated does the inflation number come out hot? and does the market adjust in a correct way to that inflation number and that has happened. the fed didn't have to say anything -- they did talk a lot but they didn't have to say anything and the market adjusted to a place where they're now in line >> quick last comment before we have to go

after the jobs report print's 150. the unemployment rate we know it's up half a point from the lows now, all those things, some of the corporate commentary pointing in the direction of slowdown some of it's not what do you think does that give them enough room to be biased toward more cuts than the market is currently pricing does it even matter the traders ran away with -- if we're about to introduce that into the discussion >> if you ask me i think it's a little healthy to have things slow down a little i think the market will like that i think the bad news is good news story will be a positive for the summer, we can start to think and talk about a september or november move and that's a positive. jay kind of gets it right with a little bit of a delay. and we're on our way down to 2 we've cooled demand. he had to bring aggregate demand down a little bit. he knew he had to do that. it still feels a little too hot. supply might work for us it did pretty good for us over the last couple years, getting us down from 9 to 3 1/2 after the negative supply shocks but i think the market will like that the market's not going to like a reacceleration >> quick last word, steve,

peter. just in a -- >> i will cop to the idea that about three weeks ago i did a story about upgrades to q2 gdp because there were upgrades to q2 gdp because that retail number came in hot, we were 2.23%. and just this past week i did a story about weakening of the economy. i'm following the data it has been schizophrenic. i think peter talked about that earlier. so it's unclear what the outlook is there's a little bit of weakening in here after a strong march we don't have a lot of data yet >> anything you'd add, peter >> i think jay's job is pretty tough right now. there's no doubt and he did say, though, in the press conference that the labor market is something they're paying more attention to and that they would respond to a further rise in the unplemploymt rate and a lot of data that i see, not within bls but there's data that the pace of hiring is further slowing. the demand for workers is slowing. >> all right we'll be back to rate cut chat before too long i suppose. thank you all. really, really appreciate it dave zervos, peter boockvar. steve sticks around.

starling capital addressing the speed and scope the fed has raised rates and potential fallout from it. here's what he said on last call yesterday. >> the koons consequences are the real estate markets took it on the chin because rates rose so fast. we could have handled this but we couldn't handle it this fast and people are looking for these cracks and you're going to see the cracks develop now you're going to see a regional bank fail every day. every week maybe two a week >> well, this does come as office buildings face historic defaults msci estimating $38 billion worth of properties are at risk of loan default or foreclosure that's the highest number since 2012 you about my next guest says it also provides a once in a generation buying opportunity for more anthony melkin joins us he's the chair and ceo of empire state realty trust the owner of course of the iconic empire state building and other commercial properties in new york anthony, it's great to see you again. welcome back >> and welcome back to you congratulations. >> thank you so do you -- what's the buzz in the real estate community? because we just heard people saying they're eager for rate

cuts and barry still seems concerned about bank failures. what about you >> you know, i want to make a call-out to my partner christina chu, joined us from morgan stanley in april of 2020 as cfo and since late february this year has been our president. she and i and the board have focused less on a prediction of the future and more to be ready for anything and with that in mind we're not worried, we're hungry. we think the capital markets recorded companies for too long for lots of debt at low floating rate interest and values are backed up by low cap rates there will be defaults i think that will be healthy so we see conditions more like '89 through '92 than the great financial crisis and the generational opportunity to participate through acquisitions and we're well positioned to take advantage >> what would be a couple examples of where you're looking to nibble and if there's any ideas for others out there >> well, we bought a bunch of residential, we bought some retail in brooklyn we definitely still think of new

york city. we love new york city. we're so pleased that we are here we do see opportunity with office, retail and residential i think the office -- requires a lot of adjustment because it's very capital intensive we're positioned to take advantage of the opportunity we have been patient and opportunistic. we'll continue to do so. that said, we've been approached by a lot of capital partners that are much more interested in sort of a decadelong view. they're interested in multiple of invested capital and not rate of return. and i think that's where the biggest suffer will be >> just to put a point on it i'm not hearing you say we're on the sidelines until the fed cuts rates. >> no. no my grandfather always said in a low interest rate environment borrow as little as you need in a high interest rate environment buy as much as you can afford this is a time to commit the balance sheet to the right opportunity. interest rates will work themselves out we definitely see cracks there has been a big move of

maturities in 24 back to 25. there's a big push from 23 to 24 and at the same time things are starting to fall off well, they push things are falling off the table and that's where we see a lot of opportunity. >> steve, what are you thinking? >> first of all i'm thinking that i'm really glad to be on air with tony malkin and before we talk about business i want to just thank him for his great philanthropy work and he's just a great citizen of new york city. and we're just lucky to have him owning the empire state building and all that stuff i'll just spend a second on that if you don't mind. >> absolutely. >> thank you, tony, for the things that you do in the city here >> back at you. >> here's what i care about. i want to know if commercial real estate is going to be a systemic problem that's going to cause a shock and i think about it in two ways there's stuff coming that you know you can adjust for and there may be stuff that's so bad that even if you know it's

coming you can't adjust for it in my conversations with federal reserve officials, and i'm taking off of what barry is saying barry's warning -- i think one of his quotes, we'll get a regional bank failure every day. >> he makes it sound like systemic >> fed officials, treasury officials i talked to say you know what, we're on this, we know this is coming, it takes a lot to bring a plane down essentially. i hate to use that metaphor because i fly so much. that you know it's coming. i believe this is something they can get out of the way i wish that this last conversation we had about the fed was that rates were coming down because i think there will be more pain but to the extent that bankers know about it, to the extent that regulators are in their face about it. and saying you must prepare for worst case scenarios here in terms of reserving, in terms of workout, things like that, i don't see a systemic list risk there will be losses there will be pain that doesn't mean there will be systemic risk. and i'm just watching if we're going to have a repeat of something from the gfc i don't see that coming. that's what i think. what tony's doing is part of the

workout. right? he's sitting there with a bunch of capital and when the price is right, because they used to say, tony, that the hotel -- only the third hotel operator made money, right? >> first of all, i think that there is something to be said for the fact -- take good heart from the unsecured bond offering we did just a few weeks ago. >> right >> we had one existing bond owner participate. we had an oversubscription we went out for 150 million of privately placed unsecured bonds. we had $255 million of interest. we took 225 million in over 5, 7, and 10 years. and the reality is four of those participants were new and really have no significant exposure -- >> what was the yield, what did you come out at? >> we were sort of low 7s on each of the durations. >> interesting and i guess i would ask if you're facing any troubles as

you mentioned you can get money that route what about from the banks? to the point that steve and others are making. is there some kind of slow-mo credit crunch still going on in the banking system or not? >> 100%. 100% and there's a lot that needs to be resolved. until it's resolved banks will not lend more money until they free up room on their balance sheets and this whole issue of the continuation to extend does not create room on their balance sheet. look, the world is a question ofs have and have nots thes have are mentioned by balance sheet of owner capital structure of building. building quality could be aaa brand new or like our portfolio modernized and monetized, energy efficient with sustainability and indoor environmental quality. and the haves get the best tenants, long-term leases, higher credit quality and best rents. if you look at what we've done, points on the board, nine consecutive quarters of positive absorption, 11 consecutive quarters of positive market lease spreads, quarter of a million square feet leased in

q1, that's against a backdrop of generally slowed leasing about 70% of prior year. i really think that's the story. and the ones who are the have nots, they're untouchable. and -- >> tony, i just want to read a little bit into that so you're seeing what, pennies on the dollar on b and c class space? >> i think that there are certain space that just will not rent because tenants will not go there, brokers will not go there. the market of manhattan is not 400 million square feet big. it's based upon who are the landlords who can do business today. so it's a much smaller set of action available, and that's why you see portfolios like ours, we're basically 93% leased at this point better properties, a huge delta between the haves and the have nots >> tony, real quick, i went into an office the other day, it wasn't your building, but where they had cubicles that you essentially would -- you'd make

an appointment for how are you dealing with this idea of the idea that not everybody's coming into the office, they're not coming in all the time what kind of changes are you making to some of your space >> so actually, you make a great point, and i'm glad you raise it people hate that what we see is a return to office -- meaning the users hate it and what they've discovered is oh, they now know the way to do it is -- oh, i reserve it. i leave my things there overnight. the return to in-person work is actually changing the way people look at their space needs. that said, i think the short-term flex space offers, the wework and the like, i think those are dead and gone. it's like the s & l crisis of the early '90s it's a mismatch of obligations and revenue streams and it doesn't work >> you think lifestyle wise and speaking as someone who lives in the suburbs and talks to moms every day who are in tears of having to go back or not,

there's still this tension how can -- what is the right way for office space, for landlords, toar companies to resolve that what do they need to be offering >> i can tell you the people who come to us, the -- we had our most active tourism the first quarter of this year compared to anything prior to covid. we will tell -- i'll tell you, the people who come to us, they're not worried about the people in tears. they're worried about what is the right environment to which we can bring back our people that's the number one thought. >> permanent desks >> permanent desks i think there's less of a focus -- like at columbia law school oh, there have been protests, we can't take finals, you know, give everyone a pass and it's more no, you're going to have to do the work, you're going to have to take your test, let's give you the right environment in which to do your work >> tony, we've got to go but are you -- i didn't have a chance to look are you orange and blue for the knicks are the lights orange and blue >> when they win we light them >> beautiful

>> new york teams this year. >> orange and blue, baby >> stock calls for msg predicated on the success -- arrangements thank you as always we appreciate it >> thank you and welcome back, kelly. >> appreciate it thank you very much, sir anthony malkin, steve liesman, always a pleasure. coming up with the lakes of stanley druken miller trimming positions in nvidia, we'll ask one of the biggest bulls on the street why he still sees the stock rallying 30% from here plus we're getting a flurry of headlines on huawei, robo taxis washington and positions more of "the exchange" after this bconhis is "the exchange" cn (ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it.

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and they're all coming? those who are still with us, yes. grandpa! what's this? your wings. light 'em up! gentlemen, it's a beautiful... ...day to fly. we did cut that position and a lot of other positions in late march. i just need a break. we've had a -- we've had a hell of a run a lot of what we recognized has become recognized by the marketplace now. >> these stocks are up a lot,

you know, to start this year, and the backdrop has gotten a little worse so i agree with josh that if you want to take a little bit off the table today, you know, just reflecting on the fact that you've achieved a year's worth of returns in the first few months of the year, think that that makes sense >> yes, it's nvidia that stanley druckenmiller is trimming his position in. and as altimeter's brad gerstner points out it's one of the handful of stocks that saw big gains last year but shares are 7% below their 52-week high. there's a lot of new players emerging microsoft announced today with biden in attendance, by the way, that they would invest $3 billion to build ai out in wisconsin. apple debuted two new ipads that will back ai programs. and once under the radar super micro became a near $50 bm company thanks to its strong sales of its ai-powered servers. but even as the competition heats up my next guest says nvidia's moat is only so big and it's only going to get bigger over the next decade he's got a buy rating on the stock, $1200 price target i

think he's had it since 2037 he's got 33% more upside from here c.j. muse, senior managing director at cantor fits covering the semi space pleasure to chat with you. did i get that right about your bullishness all along the way here >> yeah, you did thank you for having me. >> what did you identify way back when about nvidia's potential that makes you still so bullish on its up side now? >> i can't say way back then that i saw this coming but you know, as we sit here today i think that jensen and crew have really created both the hardware and software and complete solution that has put them in the bull position. and they're moving to an annual cadence for new offerings, will only enhance their competitive advantage. i love to hear the skepticism. i love that there's great debate that they might have an air pocket before the launch of

their new black box solution therein lies the opportunity there's a worry there could be potential for an air pocket. and we don't see that at all we've definitely seen lead times pull back in the sense that you can now find gpus. but in no way does that mean we're in excess supply and i think that whether it's hyperscalers, enterprise and sovereigns i think that they're going to drive excellent demand for ai well into 25 and 26 >> you're not ruling out a pullback but you're basically saying people should jump in with both hands. let's talk brass tacks if we could and talk about the p/e multiple, the earnings potential that you see over the remainder of this year, maybe into next year >> sure. i think that for next year the street's at $30. we've been talking about $35 plus i think the buy side is underwriting a 35 to 40 number and if that's the case then i

think we easily get to our price target and i think that will be the case >> what about people who look back and i'm going to take this outside the realm of people in the semiconductor space. but traders and investors more broadly. they say we saw tesla when it was a trillion dollars, wasn't a great time to buy it then. >> sure. i think there is a realistic kind of thought process in terms of how big can the market cap actually become? but if the ai infrastructure market is truly going to grow into a $400 billion market and given the leadership that we expect nvidia will continue to have, then the current market cap is conservative in that world. so if you believe in ai and you believe in the investments that are required to support that, which we do, you know, their market cap can clearly push higher >> how do you think about the different kind of macro factors here what the fed does or doesn't do with rates whatever kind of slowdown might

happen with the economy this year how should we think about nvidia up side down side in those scenarios? >> that's a great question if i had to think about what i learned this earning season at a very high level, it's really kind of secular continuing to win whereas cyclical if anything downticked over the last three months if you look at housing or some of the reports on the consumer front, clearly it's pointing to a slowdown in the economy into the second half of the year. and obviously, you know, that is really i think the one risk for owning nvidia. but that said, i think the backdrop is for continued spending kind of irrespective of what the fed does or the consumer because ai is so mission critical to every fortune 2000 company that they have to invest and so i just don't see the slowdown here. i think we can weather the storm

in terms of nvidia sales continuing to push higher and above consensus. and in that environment if they're truly going to do $35, the multiple today at 25 times is not aggressive at all and so i think in any economic scenario nvidia will be a relative outperformer. >> compared with tesla or netflix at their peak. 1200 is your price target. you're overweight. c.j. muse with cantor fitzgerald and by the way, don't miss jon fortt's interview with nvidia very jensen huang later today. we'll see that at 4:00 p.m. eastern on "closing bell" overtime uber and lyft going in different directions today after results we'll tell you what stood out to the street and hear from both ceos when we come back

(vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic. welcome back i'm pippa stevens with your news update democratic lawmakers and immigration advocates are urging president biden to prioritize

long-term undocumented immigrants even as his administration considers executive actions to slow the record crossings across america's southern border. in a letter signed by over 80 congressional members the group suggested ways the white house could help undocumented immigrants achieve legal status ahead of the november elections. delta airlines and southwest airlines received top marks for customer satisfaction in a j.d. power airline survey today delta scored the highest in premium cabins while southwest was the preferred economy carrier for the third year in a row. the survey noted airlines that invested in their staff saw more satisfied customers despite higher airfares. and the olympic flame reached france today, arriving in marseille amid tight security the torch relay will begin tomorrow and make its way through france until it reaches paris for the opening ceremony of the olympics, which will take place on july 26th you'll be able to watch the

games on all nbc networks and peacock. kelly? >> is that a flotilla? that is amazing. quite the show >> yeah, quite the show indeed and it's just getting started. >> we appreciate it. pippa stevens. coming up, chinese stocks are trying to mount a rebound after a dismal 12 months we'll ask crane shares' chief investment officer about his viewn eiecomne rht othr ony xtig after this ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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week president xi is touring europe for the first time in five years. tesla is making deals in the mainland and the u.s. is imposing new trade restrictions, garnering a warning from the imf about global gdp impact. meanwhile, chinese stocks, they're rallying the hang seng and kraneshares etf outperforming the s&p since april essentially matching those year to date gains but morgan stanley and clock tower see the rally fading whale stanley druckenmiller told cnbc yesterday he'd never invest there while xi is in power joining me now to discuss is brendan ahern, kraneshares' chief investment officer he'd never invest there, brendan. he's done. he's over. what's your response >> well, i think like many investors mr. druckenmiller, who obviously i highly respect and every investor should follow i think there's been a lack of trust and confidence following china's internet regulation. they hurt a lot of private equity investors it will take a lot for that

trust to come back at the same time there are investors who are willing to come back much quicker, which would be investors in china buying chinese equities as we're seeing today >> you are pointing to what is it, athm online car sales company auto home, at home what is it called? beat analyst expectations, blah, blah what do you think is going on here that we need to be paying attention to >> well, i think we've had post a derivative indoused meltdown in the mainland markets and hong kong market in january we're seeing a very significant rally. at the same time we're not seeing very significant foreign investor participation i think that's because many investors got burned trying to buy the dip. what we think is different this time is what auto home showed is that analyst expectations for the companies are very, very low and they beat on the big three, revenue, adjusted eps, adjusted income next tuesday morning we have alibaba and tencent reporting. next thursday we have jd.com and

badu all we're saying is china's economy is slowly improving as we saw with q1 gdp >> right >> as well as you're seeing the fundamentals of the underlying companies. we just think investors are underallocated if this rally gets some continued legs >> my trillion-dollar question for you because you follow this much more closely than i do you think something fundamental has changed where the leadership is going to allow or even encourage, for instance, those once former tech high flyers to rebound and really be able to see some lift-off again? >> yeah, i mean, china's economy, we do, kelly, because china's economy needs domestic consumption. that export-driven manufacturing in china's been quite strong, driven by demand from the u.s., asia and europe. at the same time they need a rise in domestic consumption and that's where the companies within kweb are the transmission engines for domestic consumption online you can't kill the companies that allow for consumption to

take place and i think that's why they backed off the regulation >> reminds me of the utilitiesque conversation we had a couple years ago brendan ahern, keeping an eye from krane shares. uber shares down 9% after swinging to a loss in the first quarter. but it's a different story for 'lhe fin competitor. wel arrom lyft's ceo with those shares rallying, next.

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welcome back to "the exchange." shares of lyft are having their best day in two months after better than expected results and astrong forecast, the company beat estimates on the top and bottom lines thanks to growth in its commuter and major events segments. are they starting to see signs of weakness among the consumer? david answered that question this morning. >> it is so interesting for all the discussion about economic concerns. at least in that 20 $-30 average ride, we are actually not seeing that. if anything, we are seeing little indications of the opposite which is what people not expect what we see. >> we heard from the ceo of uber saying they are not seeing signs of a consumer slowdown. instacart plate 10% move in

either direction. has only missed on the bottom line twice in the last 20 quarters and there is nearly 9% short interest. the most out of the big hotel chain. we will get to t ahection, the story, and the trades all three of those, next (ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we neele with customer demand... in real time. (jen) so we partner with verizon. their solution for us? a private 5g network. (ella) we now get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. (marquis) with a custom private 5g network. our customers get what they want, when they want it. (jen) now we're even smarter and ready for what's next. (vo) achieve enterprise intelligence. it's your vision, it's your verizon. at corient,

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instacart, tapestry set to report. gina sanchez, chief market strategist. it is good to see you again. >> thank you. >> let's start with instacart. uber's ceo between the two companies. uber's most significant growth opportunity is in the suburbs . strength for instacart. reporting a loss this quarter but the stock is up year-to- date 50%. would you own in here? >> we are actually not owning in here. this is one that we think still has to prove its metal and profitability. until we see that they have demonstrated sustainable profitability, and i think this consumer downturn, although apparently neither uber or lyft show that opinion, we will likely see a sustained downturn in the consumer later this year. that is when we will find out what cart is made of. >> it is so hard to have to wait for that to come when you know it is coming but i guess

you stay on the sidelines for now. where does that leave tapestry? the parent company of coach. they are battling. investors are keeping an eye on what is going on with spending but what you do, given what, what you do with tapestry? >> obviously, the ftc news is not great news for tapestry but that story about the consumer is a tale of two consumers. the lower end consumer is going to have a very hard time and we actually heard jane frazier from citigroup talking about that earlier this week. i completely agree that this is going to hit the lower end consumer but tapestry services, higher end consumer. their modest single-digit expectations for growth are reasonable. they can weather the storm a little better. >> a 6% year-to-date gain.

we got the tale of two travelers today. strong luxury demand did help to record revenues while choice hotels in that mid segment posted weaker than expected revenue and flat growth this year. they reaffirmed that in the meantime, down more than a today. keeping an eye on the summer outlook and sales as well. the hotel earnings. seems to basically coincide with exactly what thing about the consumer. what you do with hyatt? >> the problem with hyatt isn't even a tale of two consumers. it's too highly price. it is valuation is relative to other travel socks right now is too high. if you look at the outlook for travel, we've already gone through the revenge travel segment. experiencing lots of growth and travel. that's been a moderate back to southern normality. if we get back to that normal level, paying too high a price.

what are you doing? i wanted to be the final one of the last couple seconds, gina. you've heard the commentary. is it time to trim growth stocks ? is a time to pull back? what you think is going on? would you do that and have roddar concerns about market here? >> we are actually using the opportunity where we are seeing rallying markets to accurately hedge our downside with options. we think right now, it very hard to tell our clients that we need to get out of growth but we are using good option pricing to protect on the downside because we do actually see some turbulence ahead. >> interesting. gina, thank you very much. we appreciate your time. it is good to see you again today. even as the dow is moving towards the session highs, it's not the midday weakness we saw. we will do it for the exchange. pick things up on power lunch. he's got his latest position and it is a stock draft pick. i will join them on the other

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op welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, it just feels right. it is such a good place to be. i am dominic. coming up on the show, we