the the . ringback the precious president vladimir persian has been sold for a 5th term, his hold on power sooner than ever. but the war and ukraine has led to the west relations with the, with since the cold war. so what will 6 more? he is a push in main for russia and the world. this is inside story, the hello and welcome to the program. i'm told mcrae rushes, president letting me a patient has been sworn in for a 5th. 10. is ritual an organization in the kremlin glittering holes, something of

a familiar drill for the most powerful leader in the country. since joseph stalin, i'm challenged at home, but it is a different story abroad. the war and ukraine has led to the most severe economic sanctions imposed on the country as the us and wisdom allies to isolate, and we can of russia and return moscow has forged alternative trade relations, notably with china, while repression has been used across the states and russia, there was little signs of any real opposition to persian, with some arguing width and hostility has strengthened his position to time. have a trade in the west as a threat to the level pace, pushing the st. elsewhere as a man to do business with in parts of africa, south america, the middle east and asia. so what does another person presidency main for russia? its neighbors and the wells will be asking out guess these questions and more than just a few moments. but 1st, this report from alexandra by us, a long walk along a familiar pass. it's the 5th time vladimir putin has made this journey from the

senate palace to the throne hall at the kremlin, where in a highly choreographed ceremony, he formerly begins his 5th term as russia's president loose us, which is 3 and your principal, president of the russian federation. i swear to risk effects and protect the rights and freedoms of people and citizens related to respect and protect the constitution of the russian federation. and to protect the sovereignty, independence, safety, and integrity of the state. you have a loyalty set of the people that are on the and with that oath of office hootin was sworn in for another 6 years. he won a landslide victory in elections in march against the 3 approved challengers. with those opposed to his policies or the war and ukraine bard from running. it was a vote seen in the west as neither free nor fair and other than the french ambassador. the ceremony was boycotted by most western powers. often

a lot of discussion. remember the states a sent a message to all of them saying that my understanding the right thing to do is not to attend dish and negotiation. who soon has ruled russia since 1999 longer than any criminal leader. since joseph stalin, he's credited was stabilizing the country politically and economically. after the economic chaos under boris yeltsin before him. it's a legacy. he continues to profit from seen by some russians as the strong leader their country needs. his main critics are exiled, jailed or dead. and political opposition has been crushed the war in ukraine now more than 2 years and has proved his biggest challenge so far. severe western sanctions have led to stronger alliances with china and india. relations

between moscow and the west are at their worst since soviet times. at home, in time of war, putin remains on challenge his inauguration give the ceremonial opportunity to present his hold on power at home to the world. alexander buyers out 0 for inside story, the cabinet spring. and now guess now for most of the andre a box, i noticed the deputy chairman of the association of russian diplomats and the former russian diplomat himself and could show and from sort of short is a biography of letting me a potent and a full i'm a foreign correspondent, christopher with a is the ceo of you, raise your focus strategic consulting company macro advisory, and he joins us from london. thank you very much, gentleman for joining us here on inside story chris. but if i can begin with you that put in times in overwhelming victory in the selection as, as we saw there,

i mean, it was widely contained by many people is failing to make the most basic democratic stand. and so why hold an election in the 1st place, if we already knew the outcome before or vice was cost? well, because were present, people of course, uh, always wants to show to these got strong public supports that people endorse them. and as you say, of course the, the system is such, so there's no major opposition candidates or are parties can actually participate there usually exclude us. but it's, you know, it's an event every now 6 years where people can set out and, you know, publicly he's is, agenda can talk about what he's achieved. it's, it's an opportunity every so often for a few to engage with the people and ends to get this this endorsement, which he's always monitors despite the fact that, you know, he has this reputation. an image of being, you know, aloof, a, being

a strong amanda, etc. piece does you know, care about what the majority of russian people think about it when we've seen that's and many, many examples over the last 24 years. and so elections are important refer and even though we just say the result is never induct. andre, what is his agenda year in most go? i'm just putting him into this new 10 minute stronger. we can position them when he starts with the last one in my head today. i've had a good opportunity to cover the events because i was monitoring the the, this setting money or helping y'all or send through that through pollution. and uh, i saw the reaction of the people inside that we also picked some immediate reports from our origins. i understood that uh, the expectations are high that uh, we'll go on a month to any good temple in the funeral, dove echo,

and i may have had to look into for more than 20 years ago. we had uh, a level of, uh, echo. and i mean the now, in spite of the fixture of the sections of the seattle view, i'm hoping to approach number 4, which is just 2, but it will trip progress. and, well, actually i think that we're getting much to be given to bribes during these years. we've got some difficulties of or have some people that are the critical to some of the aspects over put each policy. for instance, me, myself, i wanted to, oh, our foreign policy to be much more stored over the so the, the pull the show, the rest of the companies river reluctance to tech and they're just, it's

a matter of sometimes waiting too much, but, well, there's a lot more of the screws, this is a mind um the main brand is a positive and they expect the issues i'm mostly positive and the we've had the more than a do they do 7 percent of the volts full. yes. they put in, so one of the, of the, of the positive factor phillips, i want to go see to you next you have written a biography on persian. what is it about letting me put in the man that is basically saying him hold such control of a rush if it's such a long time? is he fantastic? lita is he is incredible strategic thinking. what do you put it down to? i think he's very determined and he has been extremely clever tactics. a he is managed to neutralize those who might oppose him, starting right back with the other docs in the, in the early 2,

thousands. he's balanced. the 5 different factions in a very intelligent manner and he has a, he's been able to convey messages which a resonated with the russian people had to which the economy. i don't take nearly as rose, color the view as andre, about the economy has done so. not too badly despite the sanctions, it's proved, extreme, the resilience. and if you look at the standard of living of most pricing is valid compared with 304050 years ago. it's a different time that it really is much better. so all those things have come to come together to to, to get him a fundamental basis on which to rules. and i didn't see that changing any time soon . that chris of, if we can just stick with the the sanctions obviously the us and, and as wisdom allies was really hoping to put huge amounts of pressure on taishan

with a sanction. some of the most severe we've, we've ever seen that doesn't appear to have done this anywhere near as much damage . uh, as the wisdom allies would've liked how to use the, the economy within russia at this point in time. and i guess is that more important to the russian people then how rusher is perceived outside of the country and the war and you crime? yeah, sure. as you say. and the sort of mentioned that the, you know, when, when sanctions were 1st started to art, sorry, we were, we're wretched it up. i guess after february 22, the narrative in the west was that they would cripples the economy of within 6 months, which is on his knees, etc. so of course we, we know that as being the case of growth last year was 3.6 percent and the world bank i m f and others have been upgrading their forecast for this year, expecting again around 3 percent. growth of, uh, you know, living conditions in, in russia, unemployment,

et cetera are all perfectly normal. that there is nothing i live in central moscow . and i would say walking goes into the shops, etc. it really doesn't feel any different than it did in 2021. everything is available. uh, so the country is being very adaptable. i mean, these are the key issue, of course was switching from west to east or the critics critical factor. so before february 22 rushes, main trading barker was the european union, it was sending is ordinance gas earning money from europe. that stuff. but russia has been able to, to verify all of that to asian markets, prince of the china india. and to a lesser extent, the emberts and enter kia a discount, but earning enough money to keep the economy in a stable and growing as soon as we've seen that, the issue of course is you know, that that's the positive split. there's always 2 sides to with the negative courses, the, a lot of that extra money has gone into the so called military and just through the complex, which is a big driver of growth money,

which is now going into that military district. complex had previously been aramark for industrial development, economic expansion, and critically dealing with a deteriorating demographics problems that rushes facing. that's the money or those projects of know that well being, delays a suspended because somebody's going to move to the district complex. so you can therefore say the emissions done very in the last couple of years and today looks in good shape, but is facing growing number of problems and the future is becoming a lot more difficult. the longer money goes into most industry complex. i'm not into the previously planned economic development under. i'd like to get your response to that uh, being in moscow right now as somebody unless of also said that the government could actually take the unpopular step of raising taxes to help pay for the war. a new crime. what do you make of that as well? uh, actually the most book is the rates uh the scroll uh over. oh,

well, uh, what's going on in the prey and maybe as far as the size of the drums, a full, liberating over here. grand, we have though, 9 times less uh, 12, so then we can do it and the 2nd law was war and we were a little bit of issue and the zip is uh, lens, the spirit of drive. well, um, what was the dump garza, its a additional total source of money for the bill? it that is that the but the well, the, the, the, the old world, the insure uh, easy way to be for us. so i think it was inevitable under this junction for us to raise a little bit level of the expense. let me with that explained that your soul and your brain gave us just additional input. this are for these and never to really do, but that's so that's a thing. this version of your autoplay is you. but if you look,

love love to ever think animal hospital you have a lot to see or the any kind or was something that to, to give you the impression that the con, pay is a bit more this. um, but it no, well the normal life of the whoever i think it is quite mobile. yeah. that philip how, how has the war and ukraine being the person that has it served him well. i mean, obviously a pod from some of the embarrassment after the invasion and the last is early on and the sanctions and losses on the battlefield at this point in time. more than 2 years since that invasion hasn't worked in his favor. do you think it certainly is . you'd say it didn't work in his favor at the beginning, it was not at all what he expected. he'd been expecting that it would be a short middle trail for ration that the z lensky and the ukranian government would flee. that he'd be able to put in some would like meant venture,

a pro russian ukrainian as a, as a pro russian government. and it would all be over, and that hasn't happened to tools so it has not worked out actual as he wished. and i think it's important to have that in mind though, he's found himself with a totally different situation where you have a long war, a war of attrition, which he believes he's winning. but you know you'll be better upset making predictions. it's hard, especially about the future and especially especially about was it looks like things are going rushes with them. i would. and of course, depending on what happens in the united states elections that could make a huge difference. but is that, or is this i'm setting t, which is hanging over the whole situation, which he didn't expect when he started it now is he's strong and he's certainly stronger now than he was

a year or so ago when things were not going well. and he does think it's going in his favor. he may well be right, but the jewelry is out. you know, it's not over till the fat lady sings. no, chris wisdom lead as often as i did. if we don't stop letting me put in a new crime and he's just going to continue to try and over on the neighboring countries, what do you make of that as an argument put forward by the us and ends of the west? i don't buy that at all. um i, you know, i've been observing few things since i got to to moscow which is march the th, the people that just being appointed to have this the f as be of course, the more problems the appears in august the following year 199 as, as as prime minister and, and then from january 2000 does president he's, he's been very consistent, not that's not to say to, of course, you know, something can change. but what i can say is, over the last 24 years is being quite assistance in these statements. about how we view the west encroaching on the rushes borders. we viewed the threats of rushes,

security. we did not want to rebuild, you know, the soviet empire, etc. but his entire narrative has always been on, on kind of the security of the west and border. and if i ukraine in particular, and that's never, never change. so there's never been anything in his statements over the last 24 years. that would suggest that, you know, he's on vacation is to take other countries or to expand russia. it's always being about building a secure western border in ukraine against national encourage encroachment and uh, you know, it could change tomorrow. but all that can say is just for the last 24 years, that's being whose narrative and nothing else. right, philip, i can say that you're desperate to jump on nimble. what. what do you say to that? i completely agree with chris. i think you cry, it is very much a special case coach and has been exercised about ukraine ever since the 1990. so you know,

you started talking about it when he was already deputy matter of some petersburg. so it is a special thing, and i think she'd have very much to do with his legacy. the decision to go into crane was, pretends decision is much more than the kind of collective decision of the rational leadership, as he did so in my view, fundamentally because he wanted to be remembered as the man who brought ukraine back into the russian fold. now attacking nato countries, he's not crazy. that's not something that he's going to do. and when the west says, oh, if we don't stop him in ukraine, it's going to be us next. it's a very good propaganda line. it explains to west impacts, but it is why they have to spend loads of money supporting the ukrainians. but it's a propaganda line. it's been the reality is a big goes to crane. it doesn't go any further. right. andre, i want to know from inside russia,

what is the most important thing for pollution over the next 6 years? what does he hoping to achieve and have in this to well love? i think that the, the majority of the people who would like to embrace they are the social and the economics to end up. so this is, shall remain patient also what love to show very much of well interesting, what will be in that, that, that a, over your brain made it a lot of mistakes. there me personally, think of the doors ever had a graph mistake for a while, a lot of leadership, but we didn't start very war. a whole lot liberation age is, are go immediately after they put data in, given a rating. then the thing to do is to lead these so absolutely baseless the negotiation, the legislation process and the rest and compass and the people in

cuba. they just like for us, it was a good mistake. it was better for you to interact immediately. but now we're covering andriana updating and vanessa study experience, and i think that the, um, the will be much more wiser if not, you know, are part of shit. and i do show that these mistakes are a little bit repeated to in the, in the us to come and the positive science and the economy. and they just social uh street. it'll be a little exp, umd, and also we would like to expand the uh, well, uh, the, the number. oh, well french, bro, to the, the so called the majority of the, of the world uh, its uh, potential assures, uh, for friendship and daughter, liable relationship. okay. chris, i want to come to you on that point. obviously a sense of will began with saying china and russia forward you much stronger

relationship among many other countries. do you see that continuing? and what else do you think that person is going to try and achieve sitting aside to warn you crime for a moment over the next 6 years? yeah, of course. do bear in mind. so that's the present peak. we will go to beijing next week. air you speak to for talks with president g, and we should hear a lot more about maybe plans for the breaks expansion and, and, and what maybe some of the day prior she's for, for that is like just basic joint effort by basing and bhaskar to expand breaks, but i think over the next 6 years he definitely what would, what people like you to be happy with at the end of 6 years. but i think probably 3 things. one of course, would be, you know, obviously for our, from his point of view, a successful outcome from the conflict in ukraine, which for him basically will be about establishing some sort of a safety buffer and, and ukraine and maybe realizing some you secure he arrangement with the west,

of course, rushes safer. secondly, he will want people to be happy to vote for him again. he is, of course, inside his the wrong one once more, 6 term and 6 years time he will, you know, as i mentioned, he has always been very kind of careful about dealing with people, very sensitive to kind of objections, etc. he wants to be seen as, as a popular leader, a trusted leader, and therefore, you know, ensuring that's a social conditions and living conditions and incomes, etc, continue to rise and people don't face hardship. that would be a key priority for the next 6 years. the 3rd one that is, you know, obviously is breaks it's, it's a, it's, you know, strengthening and broadening. that's kind of a, uh, kind of multi pool or worldly feel like with, with breaks being a big part of it's a and uh, you know, just kind of breaking date. but he is always a guardian as being the hedge many of the west. so i think those,

those say obviously security people and then, and you based kind of new global order, those are the 3 groceries, philip or for kind of future. do you think that person sees for himself as he goes to try and continue as prison is until the day he dies? or do you think that he is going to be happy to put his face up to one point at some point in time and, and look back on his legacy. i was going to pay you guys are actually on the phone saying more than, you know, he's got one more to and a 6 is time. 8. you have another election because i'm not sure he will. it depends to me, it all depends on what happens to a new crane. if you put a choose a stable situation, i would say a peace agreement because of that seems really too difficult. but a stabilisation of the situation. ukraine where russia can do to evict trade and then i think pollutants immediate next thought is going to be the transition. how

he withdraws. who is going to succeed him? what kind of role he will play? will he play a role from behind the scenes? you know, continued to manipulate or so on, but i do not believe that he wants to go on until he's cottage out in a coffin from, from being a is to the office. he, he wants to leave at some point and he's been very consistent about this over the years he's told about the difficulties of the succession is being always in his own try. is there a natural success? so they would have put in was to become a l. well, uh, you know, uh, the succession planning of meeting is a very specific the keys thinking, the not on the person, the level of his thinking about the stability of a certain tendencies tendencies over social economic, political, ext,

oral, then other, other directions. a while we develop confused thinking uh on the level who prefers but what personality. what would be after confuse, thinking about the uh well uh, uh, the stability or, or the experience of the research again during these years and was a necessity to go on the uh, with the positive aspects of a well pause if it looks good. but i saw it and the very serious edit you to use to put in for the continuation to all of the line. this is the key stablished. yeah, chris, i can tell you you're desperate to jump in there. do you think that stability of rusher is, is persians number one priority, a list ability? absolutely. i remember listing to administer several years ago. well, before for every 20 to, he started off his speech saying, you know, the best thing about russia is it's instability. and then quickly audits,

and then the worst thing about russia is stability. but we, we, of course, we've heard that from president people over the last 20 years. he does really likes, as, as a stability. but i just wonder, you know, quickly we've actually, i've, yeah, just to clarify, i actually also agree that present at the future does not want to stay until he is . he's carried out in the, in a box. and we were very well aware of that. but as several years ago, it looked like that there was actually a lot more, you know, taking place in terms of succession planning and the talking about a succession that it became known to, to puke, who was becoming bored with the formalities of presently he didn't want to have to turn up, you know, every other week and shake hands with visiting dignitaries and his stand in front of you know, the crowds, etc. it seems like he was putting board with us. so we were talking a lot more about succession several years ago, and the exactly is philip to educate looking for some role where he could perhaps be in the, in the background. obviously having

a very influential and strong voice on strategic issues and military and j politics, but no longer during the day to the job of presents, but it's etc. for the question, terms of a to mark, if you can, where to get a 70 dropped, it's more of those, the constitution, the prime minister would be automatically present for a max of a period of 3 months. then there would have to be an election. uh, what we have always considered is that if he does live, believe it would have to be somebody. so that's acceptable to the, all of the various groups of you've got very powerful groups, you know, and within the form, the regime security forces is etc. so somebody said it would be acceptable to all those groups who would not cause kind of a instability. go back to that word person to, to keep an eye on his legs. julian's courtesy to governor of to, if we do get government changes in the next couple of weeks, some of which we will for sure. it would be very interesting to watch those whose position change and to watch, but that he is somebody that we had previously had. so i looked at very closely as

being as something of a product a. so keep an eye on him. we'll have to leave it there, but we really do appreciate your input in your inside. thanks so much on try philip and chris. we really do appreciate it. thank you. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting a website that i'll just share adult calm and full for the discussion. go around facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on x. handle is at a inside story. somebody tell mccrae and the whole team here, bison, the in the solomon islands, the deadly legacy of world war 2, remain on the lounge. why is placed it in a fluid? now i do this, see, they are literally the sense of taking time on $1.00 oh, $1.00 east meets the solomon islands. some tante escape

a war that ended decades to go on on business like this. this world to you believe i guess is a life fly on one of your this makes modern pleads. the

business like just is free to you believe i guess is an ice fly on one of your just makes modern plates the, [000:00:00;00] the color to hold rob and you want to email to them and use our life. and my headquarters here in the hall, coming up in the next 60 minutes, is riley's won't the games was thing the humanitarian catastrophe. in garza benefits troops took control of the roof of border crossing over a 100000 palestinians a sling rough up to israel owed them to evacuate. prime minister benjamin netanyahu