for access to the river, it leads to woods. this country's major ports and that's where drugs are traffic out of the country. with in depth reports ukraine struggling to find men to fight in some sections of the front line. brushing forces out number, it's 7 to one from the house of the story. this is the flight channel of a dumb full of the water in it flowing in see the kind of river which has already passed since by the precious president vladimir, please. it has been installed for a 5th term, his hold on power, the if us, but the war and you crime has led to the wish relations with the, with since the cold war. so what will 6 more? he is a prudent main for russia and the world. this is inside story, the

hello and welcome to the program. i'm told mccray rushes president, letting me a patient has been sworn in for a 5th 10. this ritual integration in the kremlin glittering holes, something the familiar drill for the most powerful leader in the country since joseph stalin, i'm challenged at home, but it is a different story. a broad, the war and ukraine has a to the most severe economic sanctions imposed on the country as the us and wisdom allies seek to isolate and we can of russia and return moscow has forged alternative trade relations, notably with china, while repression has been used across the states and russia, there was little signs of any real opposition to persian. with some arguing wisdom, hostility has strengthened his position to time. have a trade in the west as a threat to the level pace, pushing the st. elsewhere as a man to do business with in parts of africa, south america, the middle east and asia. so what does another person presidency main for russia? its neighbors and the wells will be asking, i'll guess these questions in more than just a few moments. but 1st,

this report from alexandra by us, a long walk along a familiar pass. it's the 5th time vladimir putin has made this journey from the senate palace to the throne hall at the kremlin, where in a highly choreographed ceremony, he formerly begins his 5th term as russia's president loose, a pretty assess, just leaving you a positive president of the russian federation, i swear to respect some, protect the rights and freedoms of people and citizens related to respect and protect the constitution of the russian federation. and to protect the sovereignty . independence, safety, and integrity of the states loyally. some of the people that are on the and with that oath of office hootin was sworn in for another 6 years. he won a landslide victory in elections in march against the 3 approved challengers. with those opposed to his policies or the war and ukraine borrowed from running it was

a vote seen in the west as neither free nor fair and other than the french ambassador. the ceremony was boycotted by most western powers. often a lot of discussion with a member of the states a sent a message to all of them, saying that from my understanding the right thing to do is not to attend dish. and that will issue who soon has ruled russia since 1999 longer than any criminal leader. since joseph stalin, he's credited was stabilizing the country politically and economically. after the economic chaos under boris yeltsin before him to the legacy, he continues to profit from seen by some russians as the strong leader their country needs. his main critics are exiled, jailed or dead, and political opposition has been crushed. the war in ukraine now more than 2 years

and has proved his biggest challenge so far. severe western sanctions have led to stronger alliances with china and india. relations between moscow and the west are at their worst since soviet times. at home, in time of war, putin remains on challenge his inauguration give the ceremonial opportunity to present his hold on power at home to the world. alexander buyers out 0 for inside story, the cabinet spring. and now guess now for most go on tray a box. i noticed the deputy tim and of the association of russian diplomats and the former russian diplomat himself and could sure and from sort of short is a biography of letting me a potent and a full i'm a foreign correspondent. christopher with a is the ceo of you. raise your focus strategic consulting company macro advisory, and he joins us from london. thank you very much,

gentleman for joining us here on inside story chris. but if i can begin with you that put in kind in all overwhelming victory in the selection as, as we saw there. i mean, it was widely contained by many people as failing to make the most basic democratic stand. and so why hold an election in the 1st place, if we already knew the outcome before, advice was cost? well, because with present piece and of course uh, was once to show to these got strong public supports that people endorse them. and as you say, of course the, the system is such, so there's no major opposition candidates or are parties can actually participate there usually exclude us. but it's, you know, it's an event every now 6 years where people can set out and, you know, publicly he's is, agenda can talk about what he's achieved. it's, it's an opportunity every so often for people to engage with the people and ends to

get this this endorsement, which he's always want is despite the fact that, you know, he has this reputation, an image of being, you know, aloof, abena, strong mind, etc. piece does you know, care about what the majority of russian people think about and when we've seen that's and many, many examples over the last 24 years. and so elections are important refer and even though we just say the result is never induct. andre, what is his agenda? you are in most go, i'm just present, hit into this new 10 minute stronger a weaker position than when he starts with the last one in my head today, i've had a good for, i'll put you in a to, to cover the events because i was the monitoring of the, of his setting money or helping y'all or send through that the vision. and i saw the reaction of the people inside and we also picked some immediate reports

from our origins. i understood that uh, the expectations are high. that uh, we'll go on a month to any good temple in the funeral, dove echo, and i may have had to look into for more than 20 years ago. we had uh uh, a lot of, uh, eco, and i'm a in the world now. in spite of the fixture of the sections of the seattle view out of hoping to approach number 4, which is uh, just uh, moved to progress. and uh well, um the actually i think that we're getting too much of it get into our pride steering's these years. we've got some difficulties of or have some people that are the critical to some of the aspects over put each policy. for instance, me, myself. i wanted to, oh,

our foreign policy to be much more stored over the so the, the pull the show, the rest of the companies river reluctant to tech and that'll just, it's a matter of sometimes waiting too much, but well, there's a lot more of the screws this is a mind um the main brand is a positive kind of a expectations. i'm mostly positive and the we've had the more than a do they do 7 percent of the volts full. yes. they put in. so one of the, of the, of the positive part to a phillips, i want to go say to you next you've written a biography on persian. what is it about letting me put in the man that is basically saying him, hold such control of a rush. if it's such a long time, is he fantastic? lita is he is incredible strategic thinking. what do you put it down to? i think he's very determined and he has been extremely clever tactics.

a he has managed to neutralize those who might oppose him, starting right back with the other galks in the, in the early 2, thousands. he's balanced. the 5 different factions and a very intelligent man, a and he has a, he's been able to convey messages which a resonated with the russian people had to which the economy. i don't take nearly as rose, color the view as andre, about the economy has done. oh, not too badly despite the sanctions, it's proved, extreme, the resilience. and if you look at the standards of living of most preston's value compared with 304050 years ago, it's a different time that it really is much better. so all those things have come to come together to to get him out of fundamental basis on which to rule. and i didn't see that changing any time soon. chris of,

if we can just stick with the, the sanctions, obviously the u. s. and, and it's wisdom allies was really hoping to put huge amounts of pressure on taishan with a sanction. some of the most of it we've, we've ever seen that doesn't appear to have done this anywhere near as much damage as the wisdom allies would've liked. how the, you see the economy within russia at this point in time, and i guess is that more important to the russian people then how russia has been saved outside of the country and the war and you crime yeah, sure. as you say. and the sort of mentioned that the, you know, when sanctions were 1st started to art, sorry, we're, we're, we're wretched it up. i guess after february 22 that the narrative of the west was that they would cripple the economy of within 6 months, which is on his knees, etc. so of course we know that as being the case of growth last year was 3.6 percent and the world bank i m f and others have been upgrading their forecast for

this year. expecting again around 3 percent growth of a, you know, to be living conditions in, in russia, unemployment, et cetera. are all perfectly normal. that there is nothing of it. yeah. i live in central moscow and i would say working goes into the shops, etc. it really doesn't feel any different than it did in 2021. everything is available. so the country is being very adaptable. i mean, the key issue, of course, was switching from west to east or the critics critical factor. so before february 22, a rush has made trading. barker was the european union. it was sending its ordinance gas or any money from europe, that stops. but russia has been able to, to verify all of that to asian markets, prince of the china india. and to a lesser extent, the amber, it's an enter kia, a discount, but earning enough money to keep the economy in a stable and growing as soon as we've seen that, the issue of course is you know, that, that's the positive. but there's always a 2 sides to it that the negative,

of course, is that a lot of that extra money has gone into the so called me to change us through a complex, which is a big driver of growth money, which is now going into that military district complex had previously been aramark for industrial development, economic expansion, that critically dealing with a deteriorating demographics problems that russia's facing, that's the money or does projects of know that well being delays a suspended because somebody's going into budgeting district complex. so you can therefore say the question is done very in the last couple of years and today looks in good shape, but is facing growing number of problems and the future is becoming a lot more difficult. the longer money goes into emerging district complex on not into the previously planned economic development on the, i'd like to get your response to that uh, being in moscow right now is some enlist civil associate, that the government could actually take the unpopular step of raising taxes to help

pay for the war a new crime. what do you make of that as well? uh, actually the most book is the rates. uh the scroll uh over. oh, well, uh, what's going on in the prey and maybe as far as the size of the drums are for liberating over here. grand, we have though, 9 times less uh, troops. so then we can do it. and the 2nd law was war and we were a little bit of issue and the zip is uh, lens, the spirit of drive. well, um what, uh, of course, uh its uh, additional total source of money for the bill. it that affect the but the well the, the, the, the old world, the insure uh easy way to be for us. so i think it was inevitable under this junction for us to raise a little bit level of the expense. let me with that, explained that your soul and your brain gave us just additional input. this are for

these and never to really do so, but that's, so that's a, they this version of your autoplay is you. but if you look love to everything in the most store, they have a lot to see or the, any kind or was something that to, to give you the impression. but the content is a bit more that somebody know well than normal life. so the think is quite mobile. yeah. that phillip how, how has the war and you kind being for a person that has, it served him well. i mean, obviously a pod from some of the embarrassment of to the invasion. and the last is early on and the sanctions and losses on the battlefield at this point in time, more than 2 years since that invasion hasn't worked in his favor. do you think it certainly is. you say it didn't work in his favor at the beginning. it was not at all what he expected. he'd been expecting that it would be

a short military for ration that the z lensky and the ukranian government would flee. that he'd be able to put in some would like meant venture, a pro russian ukrainian as a, as a pro russian government. and it would all be over. and that hasn't happened to tools so it has not worked out at all as he wished. and i think it's important to bear that in mind though, he's found himself with a totally different situation where you have a long war, a war of attrition, which he believes he's winning. but you know you'll be better upset making predictions. it's hard to especially about the future and especially especially about was it looks like things are going rushes way of dom i would. and of course, depending on what happens in the united states, election site could make a huge difference. but is that, or is this i'm 2nd t,

which is hanging over the whole situation, which he didn't expect when he started it. now, is he strong and he's certainly stronger now than he was a year or so ago when things were not going well. and he does think it's going in his favor. he may well be right, but the jewelry is out. you know, it's not over till the fat lady sings. no, chris, when suddenly there's often a side that if we don't stop letting me put in a new crime, then he's just going to continue to try and over on the neighboring countries. what do you make of that as an argument put forward by the us and ends of the west? i don't buy that at all. um i, you know, i've been observing few things since i got to to moscow which is march the th, the people that just being appointed at the f as be of course, even more problems the appears in august the following year 199 as, as, as prime minister and, and then from january 2000 as president he's, he's been very consistent. not that's not to say to, of course, you know,

something can change, but it's all. what i can say is of the last 24 years has been quite consistently stipends. about how we view the west encroaching on russia's borders. we viewed the threats of rushes secure, she, we did not want to rebuild, you know, the saw beat, empire, etc. but he's entire narrative has always been on, on kind of the security of the west and border and if the ukraine in particular, and that's never, never change. so there's never been anything in his statements over the last 24 years. that would suggest that, you know, he's on vacation is to take other countries or to expand russia. it's always being about building a secure western border in ukraine against nature encouraged encroachment and uh, you know, it could change tomorrow, but all i can say is just for the last 24 years. that's being whose narrative and nothing else. right. philip, i can say that you're desperate to jump on nimble. what. what do you say to that? i completely agree with chris. i think you credit is very much

a special case. content has been exercised about ukraine ever since the 1990. you know, you started talking about it when he was already deputy matter of some petersburg. so it is a special thing, and i think she'd have very much to do with his legacy. the decision to go into crane was put in his decision, much more than the kind of collected decision of the rational leadership, as he did so, it might view fundamentally because he wanted to be remembered as the man who brought ukraine back into the russian fold. now attacking nato countries, he's not crazy. that's not something that he's going to do. when the west says, oh, if we don't stop him in ukraine, it's going to be us next. it's a very good propaganda line. it's explains to west impact, but it is why they have to spend loads of money supporting the ukrainians. but it's

a propaganda line. it's been the reality is, so big goes to craig and it doesn't go any further. right. andre, i want to know from inside russia, what is the most important thing for policing over the next 6 years? what does he hoping to achieve and have in this to well love? i think that the, the majority of the people who likes to embrace they are the social and the economics to and or to places shall remain. patient also love to show very much of well interesting, what will be the end of the day of your brain. it made it a lot of mistakes there. me person to think of the tours. i've had a great mistake for a while. a lot of leadership, but we didn't start very war a whole. well libby version h is or go immediately after they put a time in given a rating, then the trying to this to,

to lead these. so absolutely baseless the negotiation, the legislation process and the rest of companies and the people in cuba. they just like for us, it was a good mistake. it was better for you to interact immediately. but now we're covering andriana updating and vanessa study experience. and i think that the, um, the will be much more wiser if not, you know, or polish it. and to show that these mistakes are a little bit repeated to in the, in the us to come and the positive science in the economy. and they just social, she'll be able expand and also we would like to expand the uh, well, uh, the, the number. oh, well french, bro, to the, the so called the majority of the, of the world uh its uh, low potential assures, uh, for friendship and daughter,

liable relationship. okay. chris, i want to come to you on that point. obviously, a sense of will began with saying china and russia forward you much stronger relationship among many other countries. do you see that continuing and what else do you think that person is going to try and achieve sitting aside to warn you crime for a moment over the next 6 years? yeah, of course. do bear in mind that the president putin will go to beijing next week. air you speak to for talks with president g, and we should hear a lot more about maybe plans for the bricks, expansion and, and, and what maybe some of the day prior. she's for, for that, joe is like just bessy joint effort by basing and bhaskar to expand breaks. but i think over the next 6 years he definitely what would, what people like you to be happy with at the end of 6 years. but i think probably 3 things, one of course would be, you know, obviously for, from his point of view, a successful outcome from the conflict in ukraine. which for him basically will be

about establishing some sort of the safety buffer and, and ukraine and maybe re lining some. you secure he arrangement with the west, of course rushes safer. secondly, he will want people to be happy to vote for him. again, he is of course in talking to the wrong one once more 6 term and 6 years time he will, you know, as i mentioned, he has always been very, kind of is a careful about dealing with people, very sensitive to kind of objections, etc. he wants to be seen as, as a popular leader, a trusted leader, and therefore, you know, ensuring that's a social conditions and living conditions and incomes, etc, continue to rise and people don't face hardship. that would be a key priority for the next 6 years. the 3rd one that is, you know, obviously is breaks it's, it's a, it's, you know, strengthening and, and, and broadening. that's kind of a, uh, kind of multi pool or worldly feel like with,

with breaks being a big part of it's a and uh, you know, it's kind of breaking day, but he is always a guardian as being the hedge many of the west. so i think those, those say obviously security people and, and then you face kind of new global order. those are to speak are, are she's phillip or full kind of future. do you think that person sees for himself? is it you go to try and continue as president until the day he dies, or do you think that he is going to be happy to put his face out to one point at some point in time and, and look back on his legacy. i was gonna pick cuz i'm actually on the phone saying moving, you know, he's got one more to and a 6 is time 8. he'll have another election because i'm not sure he will. it depends to me, it all depends on what happens to a new crane. if you put a choose a stable situation. i wouldn't say a peace agreement because of that seems really too difficult. but a stabilization of the situation. ukraine where russia can do to evict trade and

then i think pollutants immediate next thought is going to be the transition. how he withdraws. who is going to succeed him? what kind of role he will play? will he play a role from behind the scenes? you know, continued to manipulate or so on, but i do not believe that he wants to go on until he's cottage out in a coffee and from, from being a is to the office. he, he wants to leave at some point and he's been very consistent about this over the years he's told about the difficulties of the succession is being always in his own try. is there a natural success? so then what a person wants to become ill? well, uh, you know, uh, the succession planning of meeting uh, is there a specific the keys thinking the not on the person,

the level of his thinking about the stability of a certain tendencies tendencies over social economic, political x to enroll and other other directions a while we develop, infuse but thinking uh, on level, who prefers but what personality, what would be after confuse thinking about the uh, well, uh, uh, the stability or, or the experience of the research. again, during vc, harrison that was a necessity to go on the uh with the positive aspects of a well pause if they looks good, but i saw it and a very serious edit. you told me stop working for the continue this i get all of the lines to see stablished. yeah, chris, i can say you're desperate to jump in there. do you think that stability of rusher is, is persians number one priority. the list ability? absolutely. i remember listening to administer several years ago. well,

before for every 20 to he started off the speech saying, you know, the best thing about russia is it is the ability and then quickly added to the worst thing about russia is stability. but we, we, of course, we've heard that from president chickens over the last 20 years. he does really likes, as, as a stability. but i just wonder, you know, quickly we've actually, i've, yeah, just to clarify, i actually also agree that present as a few does not want to stay until he is. he's carried out in a, in a box. and we were very well aware of that. but as several years ago, it looked like that there was actually a lot more, you know, taking place in terms of succession planning and then talking about a succession that it became known to typically was becoming bored with the formalities of prizes. but he didn't want to have to turn up, you know, every other week and shake hands with visiting dignitaries and his stand in front of, you know, the crowds, etc. it seems like it's between board doug with us. so we were talking

a lot more about succession several years ago. and the exactly is phillip to educate looking for some rule where he could perhaps be in the, in the background. obviously having a very influential and strong voice on strategic issues and military and j politics, but no longer doing the day to day job of presents. but it's a terrified to question terms of a to mark, if you can, where to see a sydney drop to tomorrow, those the constitution, the prime minister, would be automatically present for a max of a period of 3 months. then they would have to be in the election. uh, what we have always considered is that if you can, does live, believe it would have to be somebody. so it's acceptable to all of the various groups of you've got very powerful groups, you know, within the form the regime security forces is etc. so somebody said would be acceptable to all those groups who would not cause kind of a instability. go back to that word person to, to keep an eye on his legs. julian's courtesy to governor of to, if we do get government changes in the next couple of weeks,

some of which we will for sure. it would be very interesting to watch those whose position change and to watch, but that he is somebody that we had previously had. so i looked at very closely as being as something of a product a. so keep an eye on him. we'll have to leave it there, but we really do appreciate you inputting your inside. thanks so much on dr. phillips and chris, we really do appreciate it. thank you. and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting a website that i'll just share adult calm and fulfill the discussion, go around facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a inside story. you can also join the conversation on x handle is as a inside story to maintain the crate and the whole team here, 5 and the next generation in the united states. they're not happy with what is happening and

they're not happy with the u. s. foreign policy, and that's why they're trying to make their voices heard. the administrators of each university really have a choice to either escalate and call in police, be confrontational, or to actually listen to what their concerns are. city stream of people being arrested, placed in the zip tie and cops and taken away many of the purchases we've talked to have said they will continue protesting until their demands are met. of the, investigating the use and abuse of power across the globe on that which is era the

. ringback the, [000:00:00;00] the services, the news hour on out to 0 for the back people live in to coming up in the next 60 minutes is really tags take control of the rock for border crossing, cutting off age supplies into guys the day after israel ordered power seems to evacuate from the area. prime minister benjamin netanyahu says, is sci fi proposal?